Uncertainty Analysis of Business Interruption Losses in the Philippines Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

In this study, we utilize an input–output (I–O) model to perform ex-post analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic workforce disruptions in Philippines. Unlike most disasters that debilitate physical infrastructure systems, impact disease pandemics like is mostly concentrated on workforce. Workforce availability was adversely affected by lockdowns as well actual illness. The approach paper use Philippine I–O data for multiple years and generate Dirichlet probability distributions Leontief requirements matrix (i.e., normalized sectoral transactions matrix) address uncertainties parameters. Then, estimated dependency ratio based a literature survey then computed resilience index each economic sector. For example, sectors depend heavily presence their (e.g., construction, agriculture, manufacturing) incur more opportunity losses compared where can telework online retail, education, business process outsourcing). Our study 50th percentile range PhP 3.3 trillion (with telework) 4.8 (without telework), which consistent with independently published reports. provides insights into direct indirect impacts emerging economies will contribute general domain disaster risk management.